Photo : ISW
11 November 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #355
War in Ukraine: Day 260
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 10 November, Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba met ASEAN Secretary-General Dato Lim Jock Hoi to discuss on improving the relations between Ukraine and Southeast Asia. The focus of the discussion was on trade, food security, and digital transformation to boost the economic and political cooperation.
On Russia’s announcement of withdrawal from Kherson, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed doubt despite the UK intelligence stating the strain in the re-supply routes of Russia. Zelenskyy said: “The enemy does not bring us gifts, does not make 'gestures of goodwill.”
The Moscow
Claims by Russia
On 10 November, RT reported on the remarks of the Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on developing a collective effort to security and increasing narratives about the war in respective terms. It related how Russia’s argument and the minister’s coincided with preventing military activity of NATO in 1997. On the same day, a spokesperson from the Wagner Group reported on attacking positions of Russian forces in the northeast of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and western Donetsk areas.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 10 November, the White House declared a new military package of USD 400 million, which will include Hawk and US Avenger air defence systems and Stinger missiles. According to Pentagon it will send HIMARS, “High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles,” grenade launchers and demolition equipment along with the air defence system.
Spain has also vowed to send two Hawk missile launchers and Aspide surface-to-air missile system after receiving request from the NATO. According to Spain’s Defence Ministry, it is currently training 21 Ukrainian soldiers in handling 105/14 howitzers and of which it reported that 19 had skilled in learning to use the Aspide air-defence system. It is also estimating to train 400 more in the coming months.
The UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in his conversation with Zelenskyy assured to increase the military aid by sending 1,000 surface to air missiles, and 25,000 “cold winter kits” for the Ukraine troops to help through the winter.
On 10 November, the Norwegian government promised to provide NOK 1.5 billion to the UK led international fund for Ukraine to help it acquire more military equipment from the defence industry. Till now Norway has allotted NOK 4.4 billion in total as military support to Ukraine
The Global Fallout
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 10 November, Amnesty International reported on Russia’s transfer of civilians from its occupied areas as war crimes and accused Russian forces for forcibly moving the people and for separating the children from their families. In the interview it conducted amongst 88 civilians residing in Mariupol, Kharkiv, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia found that the deported people were subject to detention, torture and ill-treatment. According to the secretary general: “Separating children from their families and forcing people hundreds of kilometers from their homes are further proof of the severe suffering Russia's invasion has inflicted on Ukraine's civilians.” On the same day, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva reported on Belgium’s transfer of EUR 4.96 million as aid to Ukraine’s economy.
References
"FM Kuleba meets with ASEAN Secretary-General," Ukrinform, 10 November 2022
"Belgium transfers almost €5M to IMF’s account for Ukraine,"
"Spain will send more Hawk, more generators and a battery of 105mm howitzers to Ukraine," Infodefensa, 10 November 2022
"PM call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine: 10 November 2022," Gov.UK, 10 November 2022
"Norway to contribute approximately NOK 1,5 billion to British-led Ukraine fund," regjeringen.no, 10 November 2022
"India presents its vision of the world order," RT,10 November 2022
"RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, NOVEMBER 10," ISW, 10 November 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav, and Madhura S Mahesh
FINLAND
Ministry of Foreign Affairs grants EUR 13.6 billion as humanitarian aid
On 10 November, Finland pledged to grant EUR 13.6 billion in humanitarian assistance to vulnerable people in crisis. Finland is granting support to World Food Programme (WFP) to alleviate food insecurity in Afghanistan, to the UN Refugee Agency (UNCHR) to protect Rohingya and deal with their refugee crisis in Myanmar and Bangladesh, to the ICRC to restore damaged water supply facilities in Syria, to the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine Refugees in the near east and Lebanon, and to the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) which enables to respond to an underfunded crisis quickly. The total humanitarian aid Finland granted in 2022 amounts to EUR 120 million. (“Finland to grant humanitarian assistance to protracted crises,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 10 November 2022)
Finland government in clash with the EU’s nature restoration laws
On 09 November, Finland’s government responded to the interpellation submitted by the opposition parties regarding the nature restoration law proposed by the European Commission. According to the government, the nature restoration law proposal costs Finland around EUR 930 million. The proposal undermines the Finnish forest policy and asks it to spend more than necessary for biodiversity and environment conservation. Finland is committed to preserving its environment on its own terms. The coalition government agreed that the revised response should be that the law should reduce the cost significantly or let the member states have freedom and flexibility in restoration measures. Many opponents argued that Finland should have taken a negative stance from the beginning of the proposal’s introduction. (“Marin: Finland can vote against restoration law unless its interests are protected,” Helsinki Times, 10 November 2022)
Divide over the Sami Parliamentary Act amongst the coalition government
On 10 November, Finland’s Centre party of the coalition government opposed the Sami Parliamentary Act which was introduced by Prime Minister Sanna Marin introduced in the parliament. The law caused division within the government. The Sami Assembly Act does not specify who can vote and who can run for office in the Sami self-governing body. The Act raises an issue of non-Sami people overtaking the seats in the Sami self-governing body and how it can affect the self-government of municipalities of Northern Lapland. The Center’s Lapland MP Markus Lohi requested an amendment to the Sami Assembly Act as the current version might lead to a human rights issue. (Hannu Tikkala, Eelis Rytkonen and Linda Tammela, “The government was torn apart by an open dispute over the Sámi parliamentary law - Markus Lohi of the center, who opposes the bill: "This is a human rights issue",” yle.fi, 10 November 2022)
REGIONAL
Sweden’s Foreign Minister to visit Turkey
On 10 November, Sweden’s Foreign Minister, Tobias Billstrom, said that he would visit Ankara to discuss Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO accession. Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO bid was blocked by Turkey. Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, threatened to block the Nordic countries’ bid if they did not extradite PKK individuals residing in them and share information about them. Sweden’s Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, met with Erdogan, coaxing him to remove Turkey’s block on the Nordic countries’ NATO bid. Billstrom believes that talks are possible, and when all conditions are fulfilled, the Turkish parliament will be ready to ratify. (“Swedish foreign minister to go to Turkey ‘shortly’ in Nato bid,” THE LOCAL se, 10 November 2022)
EU aid towards coal regions failed to incite climate transition
On 10 November, the European Court of Auditors (ECA) said that the funds given to coal-producing regions did not result in an effective climate transition. The ECA looked into the data of EUR 12.5 billion in funds given to Germany, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Spain between 2014-2022 for climate transition. ECA outlined how the funds were being directed to ventures such as developmental upgrades in health and transport infrastructure, and broad quality life projects rather than “green” energy transition. The ECA added that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has forced countries to adopt more amount of coal as it is a cheaper alternative. The ECA stressed the risk of investing in such endeavours without sufficient evidence that it is working. (“EU auditors say aid for coal regions failed to spur climate transition,” EURACTIV, 10 November 2022)
Slovakian Prime Minister to visit Czech Republic amid border tensions
On 10 November, the Cezch government reported that Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger will visit Prague on 17 November. Heger said that “free movement is a fundamental advantage” of the Schengen area and that he “expressed hope” that upcoming talks would “be fruitful.” Czech Republic’s Interior Minister Vít Rakusan expressed that the meeting will not lead to the lifting of blockades in the borders. Rakusan added that the situation is “regrettable” and that the migration from Slovakia to the Czech Republic has “worked without any intervention from the Slovak side.” He went on to criticise Slovakia by pointing out the efficiency in identifying illegal migrants at the border between the two when the Czech were in control which. (“Czechia Forced to React to the Situation on the Czech-Slovak Border,” Hungary Today, 10 November 2022)
The EU promises a energy support package of EUR 250 million to Moldova
On 10 November, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a support package for Moldova to cope with the rising energy prices at a press conference along with President Maia Sandu in Moldova. She said that the EU would pledge EUR 200 million for energy security, half divided as grants and the rest as loans. The package would also include an additional EUR 50 million in financial support to Moldova. Moldova Support Platform will be mobilized on 21 November in the Paris meeting to help with international donations. Russia invading Ukraine resulted in Moldova suffering energy supply disruption from Gazprom, from whom Moldova relied on natural gas imports. The protests against the pro-Western government have been increasing in Moldova, blaming them for the surge in energy prices. Addressing the internal conflicts and energy prices remains a priority for the EU candidacy country. (“EU announces energy support package for Moldova,” Deutsche Welle, 10 November 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Hungary and Uzbekistan to increase strategic cooperation
On 10 November, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev held discussions about economic and energy cooperation at the summit of the Turkic Council in Samarkand. Orban mentioned that Hungary is “struggling” in the current war and sanction crisis, and wants to hold on to its “economic impetus” and said that he wants to increase the intensity of cooperation with Uzbekistan. Further, he added that Hungary would increase scholarship grants for Uzbek students in Hungary from 120 to 170, yearly. Mirziyoyev welcomed the move and said that Uzbekistan will be “given every assistance” to make their investments productive. (“Hungary Intensifies Strategic Cooperation with Uzbekistan,” Hungary Today, 10 November 2022)
Romania receives two loans from the US to build new nuclear reactors
On 10 November, Romania’s Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă announced that they will be building two new nuclear reactors at the Cernavoda atomic power plant. Ciucă added that this was possible because of the loans given by the US under 25 strategic partnerships between Romania and the US. This gave Romania access to American nuclear CANDU 6 technology in 2020. The first loan of USD 50 million will be used in the preliminary work phase which will finish in 2025. The two reactors will be constructed with the help of a second loan of USD 3 billion by 2030. The Cernavoda plant is owned by Nuclearelectrica and accounts for 18 per cent of the total energy produced in Romania. Through the new reactors, Ciucă hopes to increase its energy independence and added: “Romania is taking important steps towards energy independence through clean technology, which is an alternative solution for reducing harmful emissions.” (“Romania To Build Two New Nuclear Reactors with US Technology,” BalkanInsight, 10 November 2022)
Sergey Lavrov replaces Putin to attend the G20 meeting in Bali
On 10 November, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and spokesperson for Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Maritime and Investment Affairs, Jodi Mahardi, confirmed the absence of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in the upcoming G20 gathering in Bali. Lavrov will represent Putin at the meeting. Putin is not expected to face the Western leaders in the G20 meeting, including the US President, Joe Biden. Lavrov suggested that there is a possibility of Putin appearing virtually. Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo has stated that Russia was welcome to attend. However, he noted that there is a possibility for tensions to rise between the West and Russia. He had also invited Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to the summit. He is expected to appear virtually. (Patrick Wintour, “Vladimir Putin will not attend G20 summit in Bali, officials confirm,” The Guardian, 10 November 2022)
ENERGY
Gas exploration kicks off in Crete
On 10 November, the Greek Minister of Energy and Environment Kostas Skrekas said that the country has started its gas exploration, beginning with seismic surveys in offshore areas in the west and southwest of Crete. Skrekas said that the “ship has begun” and that it is laying cables at this time. The surveys are conducted by the ExxonMobil/HelleniQ Energy joint venture that has rights in the area with the Sanco Swift vessel. He underlined that the area they are surveying may be “the last hope” that the oil and gas extraction industry has for finding a large natural gas field in the region of Eastern Europe. The exploratory drilling of the area will continue till the end of 2026, followed by the exploitation of those deposits in 2027, given that the results are “encouraging.” (“Greece Begins Gas Exploration Off Crete,” Greek Reporter, 10 November 2022)